Welcome to my research webpage!

I'm interested in applications of microdata to macroeconomic theories on structural transformation, the labor income share, and the elasticity of substitution; and topics related to displacement and land management. 

Lecturer, Newcastle University - London campus (NUL) 

Research Fellow, IZA, Germany

Research Director, Future Village - Nepal
Senior Research Affiliate, Households in Conflict Network (HiCN)
Research Fellow, CREDIT, University of Nottingham 
Google Scholar

IDEAS

Ongoing projects 

- Baumol versus Engel: Accounting for 100 years (1885-1985) of Structural Transformation in Japan (with Kyoji Fukao) R&R the Economic History Review

- Project aid, Firm performance and the labor income share in firm sales (with Silvia Marchesi and Tania Masi).

- Effectiveness of the IMF conditionality: A firm level approach (with Silvia Marchesi and Pietro Bomprezzi).

- Self-employment and labor Income share across sectors: Global trends (with Liam Thomas).

- Trade openness and structural transformation (with Cesar Blanco).

- Conflict and structural transformation in sub-Saharan Africa (with Anastasios Evgenidis). 

Recent and upcoming talks

February 19, 2020 Newcastle University (scheduled)

February 5, 2020 Middlesex University (scheduled)

June 27, 2019  University of Campania "Luigi Vantevelli", Caserta

Naples

June 18, 2019  University of Milano - Bicocca

Leonardo

Vittorio Emanuele

The Duomo

June 6, 2019  University of Torino

Piazza Vittorio

Mole Antonelliana

May 29, 2019  University of Brescia

University of Brescia

Tiepolo's unfinished work, Brescia

Capitolium of Brixia

May 28, 2019  University of Pisa

Santa Maria Del Fiore, Florence

Campo Dei Miracoli, Pisa

May 21, 2019  University of Perugia

City center - Fontana Maggiore, Perugia

Recent working papers

1. Labor Income Share at the Firm level: Global Trends (with Hironobu Isaka) IZA Discussion Paper No. 12852. [December 2019]
2. Labor Income Share Dynamics with Variable Elasticity of Substitution, IZA Discussion Paper No. 12418. [June 2019]

3. Baumol versus Engel: Accounting for 100 years (1885-1985) of Structural Transformation in Japan, IER Discussino Paper No. A694 (with Kyoji Fukao) [May 2019]

4. A Decline in Labor’s Share with Capital Accumulation and Complementary Factor Inputs: An Application of the Morishima Elasticity of Substitution, IZA Discussion Paper No. 12219. [March 2019]

Publications - Journal Articles

1. “Understanding the Global Decline in the Labor Income Share” (2020) IZA World of Labor (Forthcoming).   
2. “The Effect of Skilled Emigration on Real Exchange Rates through the Wage Channel” (2018) Journal of International Money and Finance 89, pages 139153 (with A. Ouyang).
3. “Displacement, Compensation and Channels of Endurance: An Industrialization-led development Saga” (2017) Oxford Development Studies 45, Issue 3, pages 240-259 (with V. Sarma).
4. “Reversal of Fortune?  The Long-term Effect of Conservation-led Displacement in Nepal” (2016) Oxford Development Studies 44, Issue 4, pages 401-419 (with C. Lam and V. Sarma).
5. “The Effects of the Intensity, Timing and Persistence of Personal History of Mobility on Support for Redistribution” (2015) Economics of Transition 23, Issue 3 (with A. Dabalen and R. Parinduri).
6. “Estimating the Causal Effects of Conflict on Education in Côte d'Ivoire” (2014) Journal of Development Studies 50(12), 1631-1646 (with A. Dabalen).
7. “Effect of Conflict on Dietary Energy Supply: Evidence from Cote d'Ivoire” (2014) World Development, 58, 143-158 (with A. Dabalen).
8. “Disputed Land Rights and Displacement: A Double Whammy on the Poor” (2014) Conservation and Society  12(1): 65-76 (with C. Lam).
9. “Recovering Comparable Poverty Estimates in Cote d’Ivoire” (2013) Journal of Development Studies 49 (10), 1412-1426 (with A. Dabalen).
10. “Accounting for Heterogeneity in Growth Incidence in Cameroon Using Re-centered Influence Function Regression” (2013) Journal of African Economies  22(5), 757-795 (with B. Essama‐Nssah and L. Bassolé).
11. “Does Displacement Hurt Informal Risk Sharing? Evidence from Nepal” (2013) World Development 43 (March), 42-55 (with C. Lam).
12. “Religion, Demography, and Conflict: An Empirical Analysis of Indian States, 1980-2000” (2009) Journal of Polity and Society , Vol .2. Issue 2 (with Y. Feng). 
13. “Opening the Pandora’s Box? Trade Liberalization and Informal Labor Growth” (2008) Applied Economics , Vol. 40(15), pages 1991-2003 (with A. Ghosh).
14. “How Predictable Are the FIFA World Cup Football Outcomes? An Empirical Analysis” (2008) Applied Economics Letters Vol. 15(15), pages 1171-1176 (with R. Mitra)

Opinion Pieces

1. “Does skilled emigration matter for real exchange rate volatility?” (2018) Asia Pathways (with A. Ouyang) 
2. “Sectoral labor income share dynamics: Cross-country evidence from a new dataset” (2018) (with Y. Oishi)  
3. “Kuznets Beyond Kuznets: Structural Transformation and Income Distribution in the Era of Globalization in Asia” (2018) Asia Pathways  
4. “Is female entrepreneurship a coping strategy during crises?” (2018) Asia Pathways (with V. Sarma) 
5. “Structural Transformation, Growth and Inequality: Evidence from Vietnam” (2018) Asia Pathways (with V. Sarma) 
6. “Land trust laws as a solution to the land acquisition dilemma for infrastructure development in Asia” (2018) Asia Pathways (with N. Yoshino, V Sarma, and S. Lakhia) 
7. “Land Acquisition, Industrialisation, and Displaced Households” (2015). Ideas for India (with V. Sarma)   

Publications - Books and Book Chapters

Books and Monographs (Authored / Edited)

1. Land Acquisition in Asia - Towards a Sustainable Policy Framework (2019, April) Palgrave Macmillan (Editor, with Naoyuki Yoshino).
2. Labor Income Share in Asia: Measurement, Drivers and Policy (2019, forthcoming) Springer - ADBI Series, Springer (Editor, with Gary Fields).
3. Labor Income Share: Understanding the Global Decline (2019, forthcoming) Palgrave Macmillan (Author).
4. Kuznets Beyond Kuznets: Structural Transformation and Income Distribution in the Era of Globalization in Asia (2018) Asian Development Bank Institute Press (Editor).
5. Conflict, Food Security and Crop Diversification Strategies: Evidence from Cote d’Ivoire (2015) V. R. F. Series, Institute of Developing Economies – JETRO.
6. Beyond the Myth: Policy Issues Concerning the Informal Sector (2013) Scholar’s Press.

Book chapters

1. "Labor’s Changing Income Share and Beyond” In: Gary Fields, Naoyuki Yoshino and Saumik Paul edited, Labor Income Share in Asia: Measurement, Drivers and Policy (with Gary Fields)  
2. “Correlates of Labor Income share” In: Gary Fields, Naoyuki Yoshino and Saumik Paul edited, Labor Income Share in Asia: Measurement, Drivers and Policy (with Ken Suzuki and Yoko Oishi) 
3. “Interdisciplinary approach to long-term welfare effects of displacement” In: Naoyuki Yoshino and Saumik Paul edited, Land Acquisition in Asia - Towards a sustainable Policy Framework (with Christie Lam).
4. “Special Economic Zones and Livelihood Changes: Evidence from India” In: Naoyuki Yoshino and Saumik Paul edited, Land Acquisition in Asia - Towards a sustainable Policy Framework (with Vengadeshvaran Sarma)
5. “Attitudes towards displacement in West Bengal, India: To move (again) or not?” In: Naoyuki Yoshino and Saumik Paul edited, Land Acquisition in Asia - Towards a sustainable Policy Framework (with Vengadeshvaran Sarma).
6. “Land Trust to facilitate development through Land Transfer” In: Naoyuki Yoshino and Saumik Paul edited, Land Acquisition in Asia - Towards a sustainable Policy Framework (with Naoyuki Yoshino, Vengadeshvaran Sarma and Saloni Lakhia).
7. "A Framework to Study the Role of Structural Transformation in Productivity Growth and Regional Convergence” (2018) In: Saumik Paul edited, Kuznets Beyond Kuznets: Structural Transformation and Income Distribution in the Era of Globalization in Asia (with Kyoji Fukao).
8. "Structural Transformation, Growth, and Inequality: Evidence from Viet Nam” (2018) In: Saumik Paul edited, Kuznets Beyond Kuznets: Structural Transformation and Income Distribution in the Era of Globalization in Asia (with Vengadeshvaran Sarma).
9. "Trade Liberalization, Productivity Growth, and Structural Transformation: A Synthetic Control Approach” (2018) In: Saumik Paul edited, Kuznets Beyond Kuznets: Structural Transformation and Income Distribution in the Era of Globalization in Asia (with Cesar Blanco and Rasyad Parinduri
10. “Globalization and Public Health in Asia” (2010) In: Roger Deetles, Sheena Sullivan and Tan Chorh Chuan, ed., The Public Health in Asia UC Berkeley (with E.A. Jahncke, R. Rajan and A. Seow). 
11. "A Prototype Index of Municipal Performance” (2010) Local Self - Governance in Rural Russia Study of the Decentralization Reform , the World Bank (with Maria L. Amelina).
12. “Communities where Poor People Prosper” (2009) Moving out of Poverty: the Promise of Empowerment and Democracy in India Palgrave Macmillan and World Bank (with D. Narayan and P. Pettesh).
13. “Caste Dynamics and Mobility in Uttar Pradesh” (2009) Moving out of Poverty: the Promise of Empowerment and Democracy in India  Palgrave Macmillan and World Bank (with D. Narayan, S. Kapoor and N. Badgaiyan).
14. “Running the Numbers on Rogue States: A Comparative Perspective?”(2007) The Worst of the Worst: Rogue and Repressive States in World Order , Brookings Press (with Yi Feng).

Working Papers

1. “A Skeptical Note on the Role of Constant Elasticity of Factor Substitution in Labor Income Share Dynamics” ADBI Working paper (Forthcoming).
2. “Attitudes towards displacement in West Bengal, India: To move (again) or not?” ADBI Working paper (Forthcoming) (with V. Sharma).
3. “An Empirical Analysis of the Effects of Syrian Refugees on the Turkish Labor Market” ADBI Working paper (Forthcoming) (with K. Suzuki, T. Maru and M. Kusadokoro).
4. “Globalization, Structural Transformation, and the Labor Income Share” (2018). ADBI Working Paper 893. Tokyo: Asian Development Bank Institute (with K. Suzuki, and Y. Oishi).
5. “The Effect of Skilled Emigration on Real Exchange Rates through the Wage Channel,” (2018) ADBI Working Paper 823 (with Ouyang, A. Y).
6. “The Effect of Emigration on Household Labor Supply: Evidence from Central Asia and South Caucasus,” (2018) ADBI Working Paper 822.
7. “A Primer on the Drivers of Labor Income Share,” (2018) ADBI Working Paper 888 (with Y. Oishi).
8. “Sectoral Labor Income Share dynamics: Cross-country Evidence form a Novel Data Set” (2018) ADBI Working paper no. 839 (with Y. Oishi).
9. “Capital Skill Substitutability and the Labor Income Share: Identification Using the Morishima Elasticity of Substitution,” (2018) ADBI Working paper no. 839.
10. “A Framework to Study the Role of Structural Transformation in Productivity Growth and Regional Convergence,” (2018) ADBI Working paper no. 833 (with K. Fukao).
11. “Land Acquisition and Infrastructure Development through Land Trust Laws: A Policy Framework for Asia” (2018). ADBI Working Paper 854. Tokyo: Asian Development Bank Institute (with N. Yoshino, V. Sarma, and S. Lakhia).
12. “Structural Transformation, Growth and Inequality: Evidence from Vietnam” ADBI Working paper 681, (2017) (with V. Sarma and G. Wan).
13. “The Role of Structural Transformation in Regional Productivity Growth and Convergence in Japan: 1874 – 2008” (with Kyoji Fukao)
14. “Evaluating Efficiency Gains from Tenancy Reform Targeting a Heterogeneous Group of Sharecroppers: Evidence from India,” (2016) IER Working paper no. 2016-10 (with T Kurosaki and R Parinduri).
15. “Heterogeneous Structural Transformation and Growth Incidence across the Income Distribution: the Kuznets Curve Revisited” (2016), CEI Working Paper, 2016-1.
16. "Are Special Economic Zones a curse on those ‘chosen’ to be evicted? Evidence from West Bengal, India” (2014) Discussion Paper No. 472, Institute of Developing Economies Japan External Trade Organization (IDE-JETRO) (with V. Sarma).
    
17. Paul, Saumik & Shonchoy, Abu S. & Dabalen, A. (2015). "Food crop diversification as a risk mitigating strategy during conflict : evidence from Cote d'Ivoire," IDE Discussion Papers 496, Institute of Developing Economies, Japan External Trade Organization(JETRO).
18. "Investors are unwilling to pay for corporate social responsibility activities: Evidence from India’s Companies Act 2013," (2015) MPRA Paper 61360, University Library of Munich, Germany (with R. Parinduri).
19. "Are special economic zones a curse on those "chosen" to be evicted? : evidence form West Bengal, India," (2014) IDE Discussion Papers 472, Institute of Developing Economies, Japan External Trade Organization (with V. Sharma).
20. "Skilled emigration and exchange rate : theory and empirics," (2014) IDE Discussion Papers 484, Institute of Developing Economies, Japan External Trade Organization (with Ouyang, A. & Li, Rachel).
21. “The Effects of the Intensity, Timing and Persistence of Personal History of Mobility on Support for Redistribution” (2014) World Bank Policy Research Working Paper 6803 (with A. Dabalen and R. Parinduri).
22. "The Livelihood Effects of Industrialization on Displaced Households: Evidence from Falta Special Economic Zone, West Bengal" (2013) ZEW Discussion Paper No. 13-083 (with V.  Sarma).
23. “Accounting for heterogeneity in growth incidence in Cameroon using re-centered influence function regression” (2013) ECINEQ Working Paper no. 289 (with Essama-Nssah and Leandre Bassole).
24. "The Livelihood Effects of Industrialization on Displaced Households: Evidence from Falta Special Economic Zone," (2013) Discussion Papers 13/09, University of Nottingham, CREDIT (with V. Sarma).
25. “Economic Crisis and Female Entrepreneurship: Evidence from Countries in Eastern Europe and Central Asia” (2013) CREDIT 13/08 (With V. Sarma).
26. “Effect of Conflict on Dietary Energy Supply: Evidence from Cote d'Ivoire” (2012) CREDIT Research paper no. 12/09 (with Andrew Dabalen).
27. “Estimating the Causal Effects of Conflict on Education in Côte d'Ivoire” (2012) Policy Research Working Paper 6077, the World Bank (with Andrew Dabalen).
28. “Estimating the Causal Effects of War on Education in Cote d’Ivoire” (2012) HiCN Working Paper 120 (with A. Dabalen).
29. “Causes of Civil War: Micro-level Evidence from Cote d’Ivoire” (2012) HiCN Working Paper 118 (with A. Dabalen and E. Kedebe).
30. “Historical Events and Life-satisfaction in Transition Countries” (2011) Policy Research Working Paper 5526, World Bank (with A. Dabalen).
31. “The Impact of Emigration on Source Country wages: Evidence from the Republic of Moldova” (2011) Policy Research Working Paper 5764, World Bank (with L. Bouton & E. R. Tiongson).
32. "Accounting for Heterogeneity in Growth Incidence in Cameroon” (2010) Policy Research Working Paper 5464, the World Bank (with B. Essama-Nssah and Leandre Bassole).